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How do I predict which deals are most likely to win?

Team MailBlue avatar
Written by Team MailBlue
Updated this week

The win probability calculation predicts which deals are most likely to be marked as 'Won'. Win probability calculation is a percentage field on each deal, indicating the likelihood of that deal being 'Won'. This allows you, along with your sales team, to prioritise deals so you can focus your time and efforts on the most important deals for your business.

How does win probability calculation work?

Each deal with the status 'Open' will display the win probability in the 'General details' section. Deals with the status 'Won' or 'Lost' will not show win probability. Instead, this field will display 'Not yet calculated'.

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This percentage is calculated based on factors related to deals marked as 'Won' in the pipeline. Each set of factors is specific and unique to each pipeline; so each pipeline has its own set of factors. These factors range from the number of tasks created to entering a specific phase in the pipeline and the email domain of a contact.

To enable the system to calculate the win probability for an 'Open' deal as accurately as possible, you need to have the following:

  • Closed deals are correctly marked as 'Won' or 'Lost'.

  • At least 100 to 150 deals in a pipeline are marked as 'Won', along with some deals marked as 'Lost'.

  • There is a healthy ratio between the number of 'Won' and 'Lost' deals.

If you haven't correctly marked 100 to 150 deals in your pipeline as 'Won', you will see the message 'Not yet calculated' displayed in the field next to the win probability.

Additionally, updating a number of old deal statuses to 'Won' or 'Lost' will not help calculate the win probability. This value is based on the moment a deal was opened and the moment it was marked as 'Won' or 'Lost'. If you close multiple deals from the past at the same time, you will get an inaccurate win probability.

If the win probability value of the deal is between 6% and 94%, the exact value will be shown in the 'General details'. A win probability lower or equal to 5% will display 'Less than 5%'. When the win probability is equal to or higher than 95%, 'Higher than 95%' will be shown.

The more deals marked as 'Won' or 'Lost', the more data is available to accurately calculate the win probability for each deal. This value is automatically calculated every six hours, but also immediately when you update the win probability values.

Things to remember:

  • Deals marked as 'Won' or 'Lost' no longer affect the win probability calculations for that pipeline. These will show the win probability value as 'Not yet calculated'.

  • Deals marked as 'Won' or 'Lost' and then reopened will no longer be included in the win probability calculations for that pipeline. However, they may still display a win probability value.

  • Deals moved from a pipeline are unusable for data collection. Deals can be moved to any desired pipeline where they may show a win probability based on the criteria of the new pipeline, but this may be inaccurate as the system no longer learns from these deals.

  • It is advised to create a new deal instead of reopening a 'Won' or 'Lost' deal. A reopened deal will show a win probability, but will no longer provide data for the system to learn from.

How do I access the win probability calculation settings?

Each pipeline in your account has its own win probability settings, which are enabled by default. You can make minor adjustments to these settings according to your preferences. However, it is important to remember that any changes you make to these settings will impact the win probability calculation.

To access the win probability calculation settings for your pipeline(s), follow these steps:

  1. Click on 'Deals' in the main menu on the left.

  2. Then click on the 'Deal Settings' subsection.

  3. Scrolling down, you will find the win probability settings.

Each tab in this block represents a pipeline in your account and will have its own settings. As mentioned earlier, these setting options are used to calculate the win probability for individual deals.

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How do I set a start date?

The 'Start Date' is the first setting listed for each pipeline. This is the date when the system starts collecting specific deal data from your account.

Information collected from that date is used to calculate the win chance for deals in that specific pipeline. All deals before this date are not used in these calculations.

The default value for this field is the date the pipeline was created. However, you can change it by clicking in the date field and selecting a new date from the calendar.

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To reset the start date to the date the pipeline was created, click on 'Reset to default'.

The calendar only allows you to go back to the date the pipeline was created, earlier dates are excluded.

Please note: after changing the start date, there may be a delay of up to 60 minutes before the new calculations are made.

How do I set the maximum sales cycle?

The length of the sales cycle is the maximum time you and your team need to mark deals as 'Won' or 'Lost'. The system uses this information to gain a better understanding of your sales cycle, per pipeline. This way, the system can calculate the win chance for your deals as accurately as possible.

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The default time duration is set to 20 days. However, you can change it to a duration that better fits your sales cycle.

To adjust the duration, enter a new number and select days, weeks, months, or years from the dropdown list.

If you are unsure about what to set here, consult with your sales team and provide a realistic estimate of the maximum time needed to mark a deal as 'Won' or 'Lost'.

You may lose valuable data if the sales cycle length is set too short.

Deals that remain open longer than the specified maximum duration will be considered 'Lost' in win chance calculations, even if they are not marked as 'Lost' in the CRM overview.

These deals will not be marked as 'Lost' by this feature, but will only be considered as such for win chance calculations.

Please note: After updating the sales cycle duration, there may be a delay of 60 minutes before new calculations are visible.

How do I set the win chance factors?

The win probability calculation factors are a composite list of factors used to calculate the win probability for deals in a specific pipeline. Although there are more than 100 factors used to calculate this percentage, only the 20 most relevant factors are shown. These are the factors that most influence the win probability.

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When setting up these win probability factors, it is important to consider the following elements:

  • Win probability calculation factors can vary by pipeline. Furthermore, these factors may change over time as the feature learns more about your sales processes. All these factors are activated by default. However, if you know which factors are not relevant to your business, you can easily turn them off. To do this, click on the slider to make the change.

  • Once a factor is disabled, it will no longer be used to calculate the win probability for deals in that pipeline. Additionally, there may be up to an hour delay before that condition is used in the calculation.

How do I create segments based on win probability?

The win probability calculation can be used as conditional criteria when segmenting. You can use this to identify deals that have a specific win probability value or whose win probability falls within a specific range.

To do this, when segmenting, go to 'Deal details' and choose 'Deal with win probability'. Then use the dropdown menu to select the desired segment.

You can segment based on the following points:

  • Is

  • Is not

  • Greater than

  • Greater than or equal to

  • Less than

  • Less than or equal to

This way, you can create targeted segments based on very specific win probability calculation factors.

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